DARPA PAM FutureMAP

 

https://ratical.org/ratville/CAH/linkscopy/PAM/index.html

https://ratical.org/ratville/CAH/linkscopy/PAM/pam_orgs.htm

https://public.websites.umich.edu/~graceyor/govdocs/pdf/darpa2.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20240723061132/https://public.websites.umich.edu/~graceyor/govdocs/pdf/darpa2.pdf

https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Prediction-Markets-Enhance-Intel.pdf

https://ratical.org/ratville/CAH/linkscopy/PAM/pam_concept.htm

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA525149.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20040114030816/http://www.policyanalysismarket.com/

https://web.archive.org/web/20031012233938/http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/

https://web.archive.org/web/20031012234031/http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/announce2.htm

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policyanalysismarket.org

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_Analysis_Market#Notes

https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Prediction-Markets-Enhance-Intel.pdf

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9hlblccrV_lSfAuED5oUZSvcmvA1HyraDRTdln1P12FWl0RZCBr8D8rkgbczTPyAO_5Ve3gl4AQSydBKxQV4qEMKrdVvcIBnENm8EIaEgCl5fOdGIjX2kaEjY1TyYTY3VjdY819fnQFU/s1600/PolicyAnalysisMarket.gif

https://ratical.org/ratville/CAH/linkscopy/PAM/pam_concept.htm

https://books.google.ca/books?id=gWImJB3g210C&pg=PA37&lpg=PA37&dq=In+2001,+the+Defense+Advanced+Research+Project+Agency+(DARPA)+started+experimenting+with+methods+for+applying+DARPA%E2%80%99s+Future+Markets+Applied+to+Prediction+(FutureMAP)+program+tested+whether+prediction+markets,+markets+in+which+people+bet+on+the+likelihood+of+future+events,+could+be+used+to+improve+upon+existing+approaches+to+preparing+strategic+intelligence.+T&source=bl&ots=7xIS-MeDYx&sig=ACfU3U3dxGXJqow3U0DgMrNKe1_Sr_ATLw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiLt6vB57SGAxV5JTQIHXHfAMk4ChDoAXoECAIQAw#v=onepage&q=In%202001%2C%20the%20Defense%20Advanced%20Research%20Project%20Agency%20(DARPA)%20started%20experimenting%20with%20methods%20for%20applying%20DARPA%E2%80%99s%20Future%20Markets%20Applied%20to%20Prediction%20(FutureMAP)%20program%20tested%20whether%20prediction%20markets%2C%20markets%20in%20which%20people%20bet%20on%20the%20likelihood%20of%20future%20events%2C%20could%20be%20used%20to%20improve%20upon%20existing%20approaches%20to%20preparing%20strategic%20intelligence.%20T&f=false

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In 2001, the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) started experimenting with methods for applying DARPA’s Future Markets Applied to Prediction (FutureMAP) program tested whether prediction markets, markets in which people bet on the likelihood of future events, could be used to improve upon existing approaches to preparing strategic intelligence. 

Where a prediction market might be useful is in speculating on the probability that a certain method would be used in an attack. For example, in the years leading up to 11 September 2001, analysts could have speculated on a yearly futures contract associated with the likelihood of terrorists hijacking planes and using them as aerial suicide bombs. In theory, an NIE on terrorist threats against the United States would display a graph of rising futures prices associated with the aerial suicide bomb contract. But again, this presupposes that analysts had contemplated the method of attack and issued the appropriate trading contract before 11 September 2001.[51]

https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Prediction-Markets-Enhance-Intel.pdf

The third main fear expressed was that bad guys might be rewarded for doing bad things. For example, some suspected that the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the New York World Trade Center and Washington, D.C., were funded, in part, by trades of airline stock options. Similarly, many feared that the 1982 Tylenol poisonings were done to profit from short sales on the Tylenol stock. Airline stock prices did fall on September 11, as did the Tylenol stock at the 1982 poisonings. And a study has found that Israeli stock and currency prices respond to Israeli suicide bombings.20 Nevertheless, we know of no examples of anyone using financial markets to profit from such sabotage. A thorough study of the September 11 attacks found nothing suspicious.21

https://watermark.silverchair.com/itgg.2007.2.3.73.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAyswggMnBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggMYMIIDFAIBADCCAw0GCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMuO4ta4lTINbw13CGAgEQgIIC3pqCeAs0RJr-Nr6hl2LKAD-0_46-PIiFENPN1ctM0_GqHaeRzbXEQ32f7FYe3cv9du-GCnwuvgKtFcxpLmaAyq6znWmBiCUK2cPF0POal024YML9a9YADFjxEnZ6SsBzP0nsu7xSmIfcZkIsGfg8wWhRgf7M7IHqzw7tM2h5tMyG5yGWxtbZXqRV42XxBS6bDfxeFhzV_EzMgNKAjRmAYaUJnpUA4Owu02tpJNh3FvhF_FJaj8LPAB_nLtQjDJW8LwOvfB9LfOcuuZlxwNvhzqBE71Kj6DjoBCKSNY1c5Ug_QcCqPxeDOsurqXkv-7on3sS0Kk2PKXyUXvbhkmPPbAcKCxbx-HZ_-HJO2QknZ5mCdDnJh8SiEgqPUk_KnAdncWH0a1MeSWcg6CAk9in9X7DtEQfWQTdeEj3D4D6RGWtUSJDBZZ-6PBEfnaSzlF2l93Ag4RCtMvQ3VwzmvJ93hjzLATixNo0B4LFCnxYcHPHtC47Xc1QCHSeYfKW3Y_wcwu4laYKqYdyfdWLezyTyd_rnf-Z2G3G9gfU9RD4qJ-zWVKgVx2TVyRwQ33tb2l_bKG6qewpgt8bLrR3qhjZ3JhdPcsQx-eqToMYV8RIJfon9JVoOuro0eNGQyPKvE8IywmqxLQLdd-z9UvrHuRf_YaYn4d9ejPEjlBNe9sTIyBKtt7T-N3nPzoIw76KMKT18dlQVLf__4ZooSBsc4rk6f5zBqfY5kS6Wa9mv9JiIoFkAqelJKS34_zBg-Ezrh0FXqrS5lNNCBm9LpZasW5kBqk_87dF76YAvmQ_awulYtKxT-8YselkPeDTfRsPMRmaACDGGBLh_67x-PHRkdAncbavrtMBWU9H7eGujrsDU-lead9HYblMnjwUb0AQmivLaKdUfZ3x1wqSlJvVwbe8WjU88tQ9epzEMwjacrRDInj-mvGRJfluZVmK9j-v1tlbXQhFls5h4Ie201sbU50T-

https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/realterf.pdf

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